Last 30 October, the Philippine Daily Inquirer online featured an Agence France-Presse [AFP] (2009) article—bearing the usual “Copyright 2009 Agence France-Presse. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed,”— which announced that the U.S. emerges from long recession based on the recently released US Commerce data.
Although «The Grey Chronicles» is non-commercial and personal site, under a self-imposed yet different initiative of Creative Commons (see below) vis-a-vis various copyright laws, thus, this post—invoking the provisions of Fair Use—will only highlight the gist of the AFP article:
Furthermore, AFP’s article states that the official start of recession was in December 2007. Surprisingly, the global financial crisis hit Asia only a year later. Many economist-pundits saw this as the decoupling of Asia’s economy from the globalized era. The International Monetary Fund [IMF] clarified that “Asia has not decoupled from the rest of the world … In fact, Asia’s fortunes remain closely tied to that of the global economy.”
Lately, the IMF raised its forecast for Asia, saying the broader regional economy that spans countries from New Zealand to India would grow 2.75 percent in 2009 and 5.75 percent in 2010. That’s still below the average of 6.7 percent over the past decade. Both projections were about 1.5 percentage points stronger than those estimated by the IMF in May.
In the October issue of the World Economic Outlook by the Fund, (2009), it notes:
Similarly, the Philippine Daily Inquirer reported that in a 29 October briefing, UBS global economist Paul Donovan warned against “over-optimism on the global economic rebound, noting that small businesses in Western economies were still facing tough economic conditions and that banks were still lending below normal levels” (Dumlao, 2009). Furthermore, Donovan likened the pace of global recovery similar to the “swoosh in the Nike trademark—the world is seeing a recovery but it may not be as good as the financial markets are hoping for.”
The October World Economic Outlook [WEO] (2009) describe an intermediate path: there is a recovery, but it will be weak by historical standards. The WEO explains:
More closer to home, the research group, IBON Foundation (2009), announced:
Even though the IBON survey seem bleak, the investment bank UBS upgraded its growth outlook for the Philippines for 2010. Accordingly, the Philippines’ Gross Domestic Product [GDP] is now seen growing by 5 percent next year from this year’s projected growth of 1.3 percent. The forecast for 2010 was raised from the earlier expectation of 4.6 percent.
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International Monetary Fund [IMF] (2009). World Economic Outlook October 2009: Sustaining the Recovery. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, October 2009. pp. xiv, 71—72. back to text: 1 | 2 | 3. See also, IMF Research full article: Global Recovery Under Way but Likely to Be Slow, Says IMF.
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