The Grey Chronicles

2008.September.26

Appendix J: Multiple Regression Analysis: External Factors (ASEAN)


Using Minitab 14, the relationship between NSC Production versus the four external factors (ASEAN) was tested, for the model (eq. 5), page 38:

The regression equation is

NSC Production = – 844172 + 71.8 ASEAN Crude – 585 ASEAN ACC
– 18.8 ASEAN SF&F Imports + 11740 Asia IP

S = 79019.6 R-Sq = 95.3% R-Sq(adj) = 76.5%

Table 23: Analysis of Variance: External Factors (ASEAN)

External Factors (ASEAN)

Table 23: Analysis of Variance: External Factors (ASEAN)

Analysis: The p-value (regression) is greater than a pre-selected a-level of 0.05, thus at least one coefficient is zero. The F-value, 5.22%, is less than the confidence level of 95%, thus the current model fits the data well.

Table 24: Multiple Regression Analysis: External Factors (ASEAN)

External Factors (ASEAN)

Table 24: Multiple Regression Analysis: External Factors (ASEAN)

Analysis: The T-value for ASEAN Crude and Asia Index Prices are greater than a=0.05, thus with 95% confidence, the prediction is significant for these factors. Comparing the coefficient p-values to a=0.05, all predictors are statistically insignificant.

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